Should Parents Be Concerned for Upcoming Food Shortages?

During the start of the pandemic, many Americans who never spent much time considering food insecurity found themselves staring at empty shelves. The mad dash to stock up on food before lockdowns, coupled with employee and production shortages created an artificial food desert that made certain items virtually impossible to get. 

Post-pandemic, there are still circumstances that can replicate this experience. Supply chain issues (new parents may recall with vivid clarity the baby formula shortages of several years ago). Ecological disaster. Or just financial hardship that makes it impossible to buy enough food. 

In this article, we take an in-depth look at food shortages in America, answering the question: Should parents be concerned?

Answer

Let’s put it this way: If you punch in the prompt: Should parents be concerned about upcoming food shortages? Into Google News, you’ll get a lot of information about a looming supply chain issue regarding Adderall.

You won’t see reports of farm fields drying up and curling away, or any of the more fundamental threats to food security. In fact, global food security has been on a gradual uptick for decades now. This development owes both to charitable outreach and globalization. More and more poverty-stricken countries are gaining access to the resources (sometimes it only takes $1-2 a day) to feed themselves. 

But yes. Some parents need to worry about feeding their families. Several key factors are influencing current food accessibility concerns. Below, we break down the issues most pertinent to parents. 

School Lunch Debt

During Covid, many schools offered free lunch programs. Lawmakers passed a bill that ensured food for millions of public school children— regardless of their economic status. Even during lockdowns, kids were able to pick up their food in safe, socially distanced locations. 

The average school lunch costs between $2-3. This results in an expense of around $50 per child, per month. Even during good economic times, that can be a financial hardship for many families. 

Unfortunately, the program providing everyone with free lunch is now over. With its end comes a problem for both children and the schools they attend: lunch debt. 

Naturally, schools can’t and won’t turn a hungry child away in the lunch line. Kids who can’t pay right away acquire an IOU balance. It may not sound like much, but that debt adds up. The net unpaid public school meal balance is currently around $200 million in the United States. 

There are still free lunch programs. The entry criteria vary from state to state. On average, however, a family of four needs to earn a net income of $30K to qualify. Unfortunately, this number excludes many families who struggle to pay for their children’s lunch. 

Supply Chain-Related Issues

Supply chain disruption can create pocket shortages that have a big impact on certain families. We referenced earlier the baby formula shortage from 2022. Infomil, one of the largest suppliers of baby formula on the planet, took several major blows during the early Winter-Spring of that year.

Product recalls stripped shelves of thousands of bottles of formula. Then, a factory shutdown halted production entirely. As a result, parents no longer had access to products from the most significant formula producer in the country.

Parents who could afford formula lacked the opportunity to buy it. Those who struggled to purchase it during the best of times had to navigate significant scalper markups— or find product alternatives. 

Some communities experienced these shortages for the better part of a year. For context, that’s about how long babies take formula. 

Product shortages hurt everyone. Medicine is frequently also impacted by global events. During Covid, it was extremely hard to acquire decongestants. During bad flu seasons, Tylenol and Motrin supply declines. During the Winter of 2023, the antibiotic Amoxicillin was in short supply. 

Climate Change Related Food Shortages

Climate change-related food shortages have already been observed in certain parts of the world. Here are three examples of places that have experienced shortages caused by a changing climate: 

• Syrian Drought and Civil Conflict (2006-2011): A prolonged and severe drought in Syria from 2006 to 2011, attributed in part to climate change, contributed to crop failures and forced many rural residents to migrate to urban areas. Not only did this create a significant amount of social anxiety, but it is also closely linked to the Syrian Civil conflict that resulted in years of war. 
• Horn of Africa Famine (2011): A devastating drought in the Horn of Africa, exacerbated by changing climate patterns, resulted in a severe famine in 2011. Countries like Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya were hit hard, with millions of people facing food shortages, malnutrition, and displacement. While the Horn of Africa is typically very dry, the conditions in 2011 were said to have been exacerbated by the changing climate. 
• Indian Monsoon and Crop Failures (various years): India heavily relies on the monsoon for agricultural water supply. Climate change can disrupt monsoon patterns, leading to erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells. In recent years, regions in India have faced food shortages due to unpredictable monsoons, affecting crops like rice and wheat, which are essential for the country’s food security.

While these issues did not necessarily impact the same people who are sitting around worried about free school lunch programs in the United States, they do serve as a significant warning. It is true that Syria, Africa, and India produce food in more delicate climates than say, the Midwest. However, weather-related food shortages can happen anywhere. 

Conclusion

Should parents be concerned about food shortages? While there are no significant forecasted issues that require parents’ immediate attention, the potential for food shortages always exists. Sometimes, the solution is social advocacy. 

If you or someone you know is being negatively impacted by school lunch debt, advocate for local programs that can improve the issue. Other times, social awareness is more effective. 

Communities that are capable of producing their own food, and supporting growers are generally better insulated from supply chain disruption. 

The solution to food shortages is not hoarding. It’s social awareness, and sensible, pro-active thinking. If you are worried about food access, find out what issues your community is facing, and play an active role in alleviating them.