Quick Take for Wednesday, September 24, 2014
(Fast Affiliate Live + Same Day Ratings)
ABC’s “Modern Family” and “Black-ish” Open as Wednesday’s Top 2 TV Shows
“The Middle” Premiere Equals Its Top Adult 18-49 Rating Since February
“The Goldbergs” Builds on Its Lead-in in Its New Slot to Post Its 2nd-Best-Ever Results
ABC’s “Modern Family” Premiere Draws Its Biggest Audience in Nearly 1 Year
ABC’s “Black-ish” Debut Retains Nearly All of Its “Modern Family” Lead-in
And Qualifies as the Season’s No. 1 New TV Show in Adults 18-49
ABC’s “Nashville” Tops Its May Finale with Its Best Numbers Since Last December
Wednesday (9/24/14) – ABC Total Viewer and Adult 18-49 Projections:
“The Middle:” Live + 3 = 8.8 million/2.5 rating and Live + 7 = 9.3 million/2.6 rating
“The Goldbergs:” Live + 3 = 10.0 million/3.2 rating and Live + 7 = 10.8 million/3.4 rating
“Modern Family:” Live + 3 = 15.1 million/4.9 rating and Live + 7 = 16.4 million/5.4 rating
“Black-ish:” Live + 3 = 12.8 million/3.9 rating and Live + 7 = 13.3 million/4.1 rating
“Nashville:” Live + 3 = 9.1 million/2.3 rating and Live + 7 = 10.1 million/2.5 rating
ABC Wednesday Prime (8:00-11:00 p.m. – 7.9 million and 2.4/8 in AD18-49):
ABC delivered the Top 2 TV shows on the opening Wednesday of the season in Total Viewers and Adults 18-49 with “Modern Family” (10.9 million and 3.7/11) and “Black-ish” (10.8 million and 3.3/10), respectively.
- In viewers and young adults, ABC marked its strongest Wednesday since last November – since 11/6/13.“The Middle” (8:00-8:30 p.m. – 7.4 million and 2.1/8 in AD18-49): Building on its Adult 18-49 lead-in (+10%) in its new Wednesday 8:30 p.m. slot, “The Goldbergs” was ABC’s top-rated comedy premiere in the half-hour in 3 years – since 9/28/11. In its new earlier time period, “The Goldbergs” scored the series’ 2nd-highest-ever numbers among viewers and young adults, behind only its year-ago debut coming out of the “S.H.I.E.L.D.” opener on a Tuesday at 9:00 p.m.“Modern Family” (9:00-9:30 p.m. – 10.9 million and 3.7/11 in AD18-49):
- “Black-ish” (9:30-10:00 p.m. – 10.8 million and 3.3/10 in AD18-49):
- “Modern Family” shot to the top of the 9:00 p.m. half-hour in Adults 18-49, outdrawing its May finale in Total Viewers (+4% – 10.9 million vs. 10.5 million) and holding even in Adults 18-49 (3.7/11), drawing its largest audience in nearly 1 year and matching its best young adult number since November – since 10/16/13 and 11/13/13, respectively.
- “The Goldbergs” (8:30-9:00 p.m. – 7.0 million and 2.3/8 in AD18-49):
- At 8:00 p.m., the season opener of “The Middle” held even with its 1-hour season finale in May among Adults 18-49 (2.1/8), matching its best number since early February – since 2/5/14.
Dominating the 9:30 p.m. half-hour in Adults 18-49 (3.3/10), ABC’s “Black-ish” delivered impressive retention of its “Modern Family” lead-in (99%/89%), marking the best-ever Total Viewer retention for a regular comedy debut in the slot and best in 5 years in young adults (since 9/23/09). In addition, “Black-ish” equaled ABC’s top-rated Wednesday comedy debut since February 2011 – since 2/9/11. In addition, it was the highest-rated series debut on any network in Adults 18-49 since March with ABC’s “Resurrection” on 3/9/14.
“Nashville” (10:00-11:00 p.m. – 5.6 million and 1.5/5 in AD18-49):
ABC’s most-heavily-recorded show on a percentage basis, ABC’s “Nashville” was up from its May finale in Total Viewers (+8% – 5.6 million vs. 5.2 million) and Adults 18-49 (+15% – 1.5/5 vs. 1.3/4) to its best results since last December – since 12/4/13.
A note about increasing DVR penetration and year-to-year rating comparisons: Year-to-year rating comparisons based on the Live + Same Day data stream are distorted by the level of DVR penetration in the Nielsen sample, which has jumped up to 49% currently, from 47% at the same point in 2013. More viewers are watching shows on their own timetables, which may not be reflected in the overnight next day numbers. The only truly valid year-to-year comparison would be one based on the Live + 7 Day metric, once those stats are released by Nielsen.
Projections Rationale:
Lifts vs. L+SD are based on the 2013-14 season for premiere telecast or an average for originals (excluding the premiere).
Returning shows: Profile based on same show (either premiere or averages for originals).
New Series: Based on similar series.
